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Old 06-11-2016, 04:19 PM
Asmodians
  • Rank: Officer
  • Posts: 74
Default Event - All Dolled Up - Chances (long post)

Hey guys, this is a long post about chances of opening the dolls to get a higher doll or a failure or another reward.

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I opened 983x +1 Event Dolls, I have opened other times more dolls (around 100 or something) but I am too bored to add that part to this video because I didn't plan it very well so I have to look one by one to see what I got.

This time I hit the reset button in the options menu so it was easy to track what rewards I am getting on each level of the dolls. I also made it a video for hard proofing.

This is the video, it is one video but I have it in sections. You do not have to look at it, it is a fast forward opening the dolls and some comments.

Video 1st part: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=2s

So from the 983x +1 Dolls, I got these:

669x +2 Dolls = 68.06%
213x +3 Dolls = 21.67%
101x +4 Dolls = 10.27%


The percentages are obviously realistic so sometimes when they seem to form a pattern I try to generalize about them, like they seem to be
70% for +2
20% for +3
10% for +4.


The chance of +1 Doll to go to a higher Doll is 100%, meaning you cannot fail at +1 Dolls, you can only be lucky and get a +3 instead of a +2 or be even luckier and get a +4 instead of a +2

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Video Part 2: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=40s

Then I had to open the 669x +2 Dolls. This is where the Dolls can fail, and they do fail in a good percentage.

From the 669x +2 Dolls, I got these:

501x +3 Dolls = 74.89%
37x +4 Dolls = 5.53%
27x +5 Dolls = 4.03%
104x Broken Dolls (failure) = 15.55%


As you can see failing from +2 is fairly a good percentage while getting a +4 or +5 instead of just a +3 gets even smaller as a percentage than the +1. Just look at the +1-> +4 the percentage is about 10% while a +2 -> +4 is about 5%.

Chances seem like:
75% for +3
6% for +4
4% for +5
15% for failure.


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Video Part 3: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=1m5s

I had 213x +3 Doll from the opening of +1s and now I got another 501 from opening the +2s. Total 716x +3 Dolls to open.

From 716x +3 Dolls, I got these:

502x +4 Dolls = 70.11%
33x +5 Dolls = 4.60%
39x +6 Dolls = 5.46%
142x Broken Dolls (failure) = 19.83%


The only weird thing here is that I got more +6 than +5 and this is the magic of randomness, I am sure if I had like 10.000x +3 to open, eventually the +5 would be more than the +6, I could be wrong though. But you also see the failure being even bigger percentage wise here.

The chances could be correct as these (even if +5 and +6 are weird here):
70% for +4
6% for +5
4% for +6
20% for failure
, failure increased by 5% already since the previous level.

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Video Part 4: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=1m31s

Then I had to open the 640x +4, here we have an "extra" reward along with a basic reward from one +4 doll.

From 640x +4 Dolls, I got these:

446x +5 Dolls = 69.69%
33x +6 Dolls = 5.16%
161x Broken Dolls (failure) = 25.15%


additional reward:
5x White Dolls 0.78%

I say additional reward because a white doll is NOT given alone, if it was given alone it would be a failure. But there are times that when you open one +4 doll you can get a a +5, or a +5 + White Doll, same to +6 doll. As you can see there is a pattern for failure, it already went +5% again, at 25%.

Chances look like:
70% for +5
5% for +6
25% for failure
, failure already jumped another 5% from the previous level!

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Video Part 5: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=1m55s

Then I had to open 506x +5 Dolls. Same scenario to the +4 opening, we can get an additional white doll.

From 506x +5 Dolls, I got these:

316x +6 Dolls = 62.45%
31x +7 Dolls = 6.13%
159x Broken Dolls (failure) = 31.42%

+6 White Dolls (extra bonus) = 1.9%


The failure is always getting +5% higher and it might seem innocent but every level adds up failed attempts and each additional level fails even more, so they all add up.

The chances seem like these:

60% or 65% for +6
5% or 10% for +7
30% for failure
(+5% than previous level)
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Video Part 6: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=2m15s

At +6 and above when opening a Doll you get a better "failure", because you also get a reward along with a Broken Doll.

From 388x +6 Dolls, I got these:

247x +7 Dolls = 63.66%
141x Doll's Gratitude (semi-failure) = 36.34%

+5x White Dolls (extra bonus) = 1.3%


I assume it is
65% for +7
35% for failure
(+5% more than previous level again)

As you can see failure jumped another 5% here, BUT the good thing about Doll's Gratitude (failed open) is that when you open it you get 1 Broken doll, but you can also get randomly 1x Blood medal per pouch, or 3x Blood Medal per pouch, stay tuned, because in the end I opened them all to show the results of their opening as well. Getting a Blood Medal reward is 100% sure, the amount only changes, but we will see it later.

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Video Part 7: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=2m33s

At +7 you have the exact same scenario to +6 for failed attempts.

From 292x +7 Dolls, I got these:

161x +8 Dolls = 55.14%
131x Gratitude = 44.86%

+7x White Dolls = 2.40%


I see that the failure chance jumped +10% than the previous level tis time (approximately).

So the chances are:
55% for +8
45% for Gratitude pouch (+10% than previous)


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Video Part 8: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=2m48s

At +8 the failure gets even better in rewards than the +6 and +7 because you now get a new higher semi-failure pouch.

From 165x +8 Dolls, I got these:

67x +9 Dolls = 40.61%
98x Doll's Boon = 59.39%

+3x White Dolls = 1.82%


It seems the failure jumps +15% than previous level this time, probably because the failure is not 100% but gives you the Boon pouch which can give you either +3 Blood Medals in one pouch, or +5 Blood medals in one pouch, or 1x Blood Mark box. I will see later the chances for these.

The chances here seem easily identified:

40% +9 Doll
60% Boon (semi-failure)


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Video Part 9: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=3m

Last but not least, the +9 is even better than the +8 at the semi-failure, where it gives a Luck pouch that gives better rewards.

From 72x +9 Dolls, I got these:
24x +10 Dolls = 33.33%
48x Luck = 66.67%

+3x White Dolls = 4.17%


This is a clear 1/3 chance to get to +10 and 2/3 chance to get the Luck pouch (the semi-failure).

But the correct chances could be:
35% chance for +10
65% Chance for Luck pouch (failure +5% than previous level)


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I didn't open ANY +10 pouches and I am going to sell them, I do not need to gamble the rewards, I could be wrong profit wise but I'd rather sell them.

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Video Part 10: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=3m9s

We are not done yet, we have to open the Gratitude pouches from a failed +6 -> +7 and +7 -> +8. In the video I forgot to add the +6 -> +7 but it is ok.

So from 272x Dolls' Gratitude, I got these:

272x Broken Dolls = 100%
466x Blood Medals = 1.71 Blood Medal per Gratitude pouch.


Each pouch ALWAYS gives one broken doll, but there is a chance to get either +1 Blood Medal or +3 Blood Medal, there is NO chance not to get a Blood medal by opening a Gratitude pouch, I can easily find the chances to get 1x BMD or a 3x BMD reward from what I got.

97 times I got +3 Blood medals = 35.66%
175 times I got +1 Blood medal =64.34%


It is almost obvious that the correct chances are:
35% for 3x Blood Medal
65% for 1x Blood Medal


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Video Part 11: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=3m23s

Now we have to open the +8 -> +9 failured Boon pouches. These pouches give better rewards.

From 98x Doll's Boon, I got these:

98 Broken Dolls = 100%
35x Blood Mark Boxes = 35.71%
207x Blood Medals = 2.11 blood medals per Boon pouch


Each pouch gives 1 broken doll and has a chance to give blood mark boxes OR give 3x Blood Medals, or 5x Blood Medals.

If I am correct, I got 98 Boon pouches - 35 BM boxes = 63 times I got a Blood Medal reward, from which I got:
9 times 5x Blood Medals (9*5 = 45) = 14.29%
54 times 3x Blood Medals (54*3 = 162) = 85.71%


total 207 Blood Medals so when I GET a Blood Medal reward, the chances are these:
15% for 5x BMD
85% for 3x BMD


When I didn't get Blood Medal rewards, I got Blood Mark box, total 35 times a blood mark box.

So it is
35% to get a BM Box
65% to get Blood Medal reward (from which 15% you get 5x, and 85% you get 3x)


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Video Part 12: https://youtu.be/RIzxFaV8S5o?t=3m33s

Lastly , I have the failure of +9 -> +10 Luck Pouch, which is even better than the +6,+7, and +8.

From 48x Doll's Luck, I got these:

48x Broken Dolls = 100%
325x Blood Medals = 6.77 Blood Medal per Luck pouch


Opening the Luck pouches doesn't give any blood mark box, and it has a sure Blood medal reward, there is a chance to get 5x Blood medals in one pouch or 10x Blood medals in one pouch.

This is easy to calculate:

17 times I got 10x Blood Medals = 35.42%
31 times I got 5x Blood Medals = 64.58%


I can only assume it is the typical
35% chance to get 10x Blood Medals
65% chance to get 5x Blood Medals


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Final Verdict

The +1 Dolls were bought around 8m (7-9m range) during the event period and a lot were produced by me and my alts, so they were free. From 983x +1 Dolls I got 24x +10 Dolls, so I assume the percentage of +1 -> +10 is 2,5%.

If I sold them at 8m 983x 8m = 7,864 billion kinah

But when I shot the video of opening the dolls, the event was over and prices for the +1 Dolls were at 10m already and would soon get higher So if I sold the +1 Dolls instead of opening them at that moment I would get 9,830 billion kinah.

If I waited more, the prices could go higher obviously, but selling 983x +1 Dolls means that people are willing to buy them which dims as the event gets older and the new events take the interest of buyers.

That means I would easier sell the +10 Dolls than the +1 ones.

Final earnings:
998x Blood Medal which are priceless.

35x Blood Mark Boxes, about 25m each on broker at the moment thus
35x 25m = 875 million kinah if I sell them.

24x +10 Event Doll, about 350m each on broker at the moment, but they get higher each day because they used to go for 300m when event was running and I expect them to get another raise at the moment:
24x 350m = 8,4 billion kinah

29x White Dolls, about 600k each on broker at the moment = 17.4m

and 984x Broken Dolls which can be turned into 98x +1 Dolls through the quest and re-opened But the event is over so I cannot do them until next year, when they bring the same event.

So instead of selling the +1 Dolls, I opened them and got almost all my money back (if not more) but I also got about 1k Blood medals in rewards!

I get approximately 9.3 billion by selling the Blood Mark Boxes and the +10 Dolls (which as I expect to have a raise in the price since the event is over, it could go up to 400m each)

...but I got to keep the 988 Blood Medals which are priceless!
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