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  #1  
Old 09-16-2010, 09:00 AM
Elyos
  • Rank: General
  • Posts: 175
Default Manastone Math

I haven't seen this worked out but it seems that you should be able to use statistical math to help predict the odds of a random process such as manastone socketing. I think it would be something like:

If the odds of any one success is F, then the odds of getting N successes in a row would be F^N.

For example, with 1/2 chance to socket one manastone, then the odds of socketing 3,4,6 slots would be 1/8, 1/16, 1/64 respectively.

Note the rapid (exponential) decrease in odds as the number of slots increases. E.g. a 6 slot item is not twice as hard to slot as a 3 slot item, it would be 8 times harder (in this example).

And as the single-slot success odds go down, you quickly get astronomically bad odds. E.g. with 1/4 chance at a single success, 6 slots would be 1/4096 odds.

It would be nice if a math geek could take a look at this statistically and give us more feedback.
  #2  
Old 09-16-2010, 09:03 AM
Elyos
  • Rank: Governor
  • Posts: 2,235
Default Re: Manastone Math

OMG this made my brain melt a little but lol GG at trying to figgure it out though ill be watching for some kind of legitimate equation for this :)
  #3  
Old 09-16-2010, 09:05 AM
Elyos
  • Rank: Commander
  • Posts: 737
Default Re: Manastone Math

http://forums.aiononline.com/na/show...eting+crawford

read a post I made a while back. There is less RNG than there is a pattern. Most people who have tried this with a bunch of white manastones found it to be true, too.
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  #4  
Old 09-16-2010, 09:05 AM
Asmodians
  • Rank: Banned
  • Posts: 8,355
Default Re: Manastone Math

Here is the secret...Hit /roll ALOT and when you see the pattern 90+ 3 times in a row try then.

Also stand naked and make sure the sun is setting and when you see the green flash hit the button.
  #5  
Old 09-16-2010, 09:13 AM
Elyos
  • Rank: The Queen Himself
  • Posts: 1,085
Default Re: Manastone Math

I wrote a program to figure this problem out, as the math behind it is much more difficult to work out on paper than it is to just write a program that simulates millions of trials. I'm at work right now, but I could post the numbers I come out with for different scenarios after I'm home if people are interested.

What I found from my sample of around 200 sockets (small sample size, I know) on gold equipment was that success was around 2/3. I used this number in my program, and if I recall correctly, the expected number of stones to socket a 4 slot gold was around 12 stones and for a 6 slot gold it was around 32 stones.

This was a while ago, so I can confirm again after I'm home.
  #6  
Old 09-16-2010, 09:18 AM
Asmodians
  • Rank: Banned
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Default Re: Manastone Math

You realize if you are correct they will delete this thread right?
  #7  
Old 09-16-2010, 09:31 AM
Asmodians
  • Rank: Tower Guardian
  • Posts: 3,109
Default Re: Manastone Math

this thread is like Good Will Hunting.

*popcorn*
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  #8  
Old 09-16-2010, 10:12 AM
Asmodians
  • Rank: Banned
  • Posts: 8,355
Default Re: Manastone Math

Quote:
Originally Posted by Liqwid - Siel View Post
this thread is like Good Will Hunting.

*popcorn*
They system does not make sense and never has. Ever noticed how Aion has become a niche MMO in NA? AMERICANS DO NOT LIKE RNG!!

How hard is this concept to understand for KR Aion developers? Just get rid of it. The whole manastones and enchant system seems like it was put there just to annoy people.

It is so sad that I have literally stopped trying to enchant stuff and only use white manastones now because it is just broken.
  #9  
Old 09-16-2010, 10:42 AM
Elyos
  • Rank: General
  • Posts: 126
Default Re: Manastone Math

If you assume there is a RNG based chance Aedri you can't assume the chance of success for each additional socket is the same. You also should assume that whether the piece of gear is white/green/blue/gold/eternal will effect your chance of success as well as what level manastones you are trying to socket and the max level manastones the piece of gear can hold. On top of those assumptions you should assume that each different manastone seems to have a different success/fail rate as well as the success/fail rate for weapons and armor seems to be different.

tl;dr lots of work needing lots of numbers if you want an accurate and viable statistical analysis.
  #10  
Old 09-16-2010, 10:44 AM
Elyos
  • Rank: General
  • Posts: 175
Default Re: Manastone Math

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford - Siel View Post
http://forums.aiononline.com/na/show...eting+crawford

read a post I made a while back. There is less RNG than there is a pattern. Most people who have tried this with a bunch of white manastones found it to be true, too.
There are statistical sampling methods to determine if it is a Gaussian distribution or what not. Even if there is some unknowable pattern involved, you can still use a statistical approach to characterize what is going on.

How might this help? Well if you figure the odds are 1/8 to slot 3 manastones and 1/64 to slot 6, then what I do is slot the first three with cheap whites (not caring how many times I lose them), then slot the last 3 with greens. Now I have a 6 slot item with half-greens slotted for (roughly) 8 expensive stones.
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